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How good are the growth and inflation forecasts for Slovenia?
Jagrič, Timotej ; Bekő, Jani
This paper examines the quality of the macroeconomic forecasts of six institutions that regularly publish forecasts for Slovenia. The analysis focuses on an evaluation of the quality of forecasts for ...the real and nominal growth of GDP and for the average annual inflation rate for the period from 1997 to 2009. The quality of forecasts for selected macroeconomic variables was evaluated based on five groups of criteria: statistical measures of accuracy, comparison with the results of naive models, trace test, sign test and statistical tests of the unbiasedness and efficiency of forecasts. The results of the analysis do not provide an "absolute winner", but they do indicate the features of particular forecasts. It is also clear that the developers of models have until now most likely given priority to reducing forecasting errors, while neglecting the congruence in the direction of trend between the forecast and the actual result. The latter criterion in particularis very important for effective economic policy making.
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