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CEEC agricultural markets and EU accession
Erjavec, Emil ; Donnellan, Trevor
This papaer describes the development of modelling tools to simulate the effects of agricultural policy changes in New Member States (NMS) of the EU and presents first results of modelling excercise. ...Partial equilibrium models are used to simulate the first effects of policy change scenarios such as accession to the EU as well as other policy developments and external conditions like changes in exchange rates or economic growth rates. NMS gain in partcular from higher prices and budgetary support. Projections for most sectors show real improvements when measured against recent production levels, but less so when compared with historical production achieved in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Accession supports the orientation towards crop production where the CEEC becomes an important net exporter. Scenario results indicate that, in aggregate, the CEEC agriculture would have less favourable growth potential if it were to remain outside the EU and retain the policy instruments in place in advance of accession.
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